Theory of Change

Theory of Change is a planning methodology that maps the causal pathway between an organisation's activities and the outcomes it seeks. Used heavily in philanthropy and impact investing, it forces explicit articulation of what the organisation believes about how change happens — and where the evidence supports or undermines that belief.

A complete Theory of Change identifies inputs (resources), activities (what the organisation does), outputs (immediate results), outcomes (changes in behaviour, conditions, or systems), and impact (long-term societal change). Each link in the chain is paired with assumptions and indicators.

For family-office philanthropy, Theory of Change is the discipline that separates strategic giving from reactive giving. Foundations that use it typically produce more focused programmes, sharper measurement, and clearer succession across generations because the underlying logic is documented rather than tacit.